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StrategyProcess5 min read
The roadmap horizon problem
Most roadmaps try to plan 12 months out. The honest planning horizon is much shorter — and teams that admit it ship more, not less.
Every leadership team produces an annual roadmap. By month 4, it's already 30% off. By month 8, the team is shipping things that weren't on the original roadmap at all. The annual roadmap was always fiction; the team pretends it wasn't.
The honest horizon
- 1-3 months: concrete commitments, measurable, owned.
- 3-6 months: bets, named but not promised.
- 6-12 months: themes — direction, not deliverables.
- Beyond 12 months: anyone claiming certainty is selling.
Why this works better
Teams that plan honestly at each horizon ship more, because they stop spending energy maintaining the fiction of a 12-month plan. Stakeholders trust the plan more because the certainty matches the actual confidence. Course-correction becomes routine, not a crisis.
An annual roadmap is mostly fiction by month four. Better to be honest about the horizon than to perform certainty you don't have.