Estimating in ranges, not points

Story points round uncertainty into a single number. That number then gets multiplied, averaged, and burned-down, generating false confidence in a forecast that was never that crisp to begin with.

Ranges respect what you don’t know

Estimate "3-8 days, most likely 5" instead of "5 points." The range exposes your actual uncertainty. When everyone’s range is wide, that’s signal, not a sign you should narrow it under pressure.

The math works out

Sum the mid-points, but report the bounds. Stakeholders learn to read the spread. Sandbagging shrinks because the conversation is about uncertainty, not commitments. And the team isn’t punished for being honest.

Precision without accuracy is just lying with extra steps.